A few weeks ago, I went to the Special Collections – Rare Books Division on the 3rd floor of the New York Public Library’s headquarters at Bryant Park to see The Hunt-Lenox Globe. As a history nerd and a fan of cartography, I fell in love with the intent of the phrase Here Be Dragons, first found etched into the Hunt-Lenox Globe, c. 1504. On the earliest maps of the world, here be dragons identified areas that were either unknown or rumored to be perilous to seafaring travelers. Avoid at all costs. It’s my title because the phrase strikes me as an appropriate identifier for the perilous and unpredictable state of our rapidly warming planet. Where Here Be Dragons was once reserved for remote corners of the map to avoid, in 2019 it can justifiably represent every inch of the globe that none of us can avoid. As we knowingly push the planet up against any known limits of its ability to sustain human life, I want to write a few thoughts on what new trouble may be immediately around the corner, areas of innovation emerging to lead us into a survivable future, and finally some dead simple, minimal effort changes anyone can make in their day-to-day to meaningfully help avert catastrophe.

I don’t put this into words in order to try and convert climate deniers into advocates. I’m really appealing to the apathetic majority, that represents the largest population and so the most cumulative potential to actually fix things. The generally good people who still rib their colleagues saying things like well I’m no tree hugger to absolve themselves or who may be unmoved or simply overwhelmed by the events and heavy statistics now being recorded every day on our planet. And, I’m writing this now because, honestly, I do not know what else to do. So here goes, for anyone who reads through, I really appreciate it and hope it’s helpful.

Part I. Endless Summer

Coastal Property Value Collapse

Today, one in three U.S. residents live on a coast, to be specific in a county directly adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, or the Gulf of Mexico. As a matter of function and fashion, our coastlines also store a staggering 73% of the total value of the U.S. housing market.[i] Naturally, coastlines bear the brunt of impact from storm surge and sea-level rise. News headlines tell the stories of coastal damage and recovery efforts in the aftermath of a major storm. Foreclosures in the Rockaways, Houston-area communities abandoned, Miami underwater from king tides. Between the lines of losses from any one storm, more devastating consequences are eating away at the long-term viability of the coastal real estate market. Analyzing data compiled by HUD, the four primary indicators of housing market health – total new homes on the market, total new home construction, average number of transaction, and average transaction size – have all been on a decade-long decline in U.S. coastal counties, by as much as 11% in certain regions.[ii]

As of yet, no single storm has permanently drowned a housing market, but recovery in the face of more intense and frequent extreme weather now means unrecoverable losses of value that can’t be rebuilt or made whole from insurance claims. Examining the strength of the coastal housing market relative to comparable inland control groups exposes the negative impact that sea-level rise has already had. Research from First Street Foundation and Columbia University found that the eastern seaboard has already lost a combined $15.3 billion in relative property value due to the impact and growing risk of tidal flooding since 2005.[iii] The lynchpin preventing collapse at the moment is a vital safety net for all real estate markets: insurance. Proof of property insurance and, in coastal and flood plains states flood insurance, are required for all FHA mortgages to protect the value of the loan. Insurers don’t like to pay claims; they really don’t like to payout full policies; they don’t make bets when the odds aren’t in their favor. When a coverage area experiences a higher rate of policy payouts, the losses can be severe short-term – bankrupting California’s largest public utility in January – and long-term if property insurers stop binding new policies in the area at risk.

Effectively declaring a locality uninsurable is a death sentence for its real estate. Real estate markets begin and end with insurance. If you can’t get a property insured, then you can’t get a mortgage. If you can’t get a mortgage, then you can’t own a home. The inability to get new mortgages or refinance existing ones is a mounting possibility in coastal communities and the trigger that can take a slowing market into a collapse. Panic sets in for any sector when new business can’t be done and, for coastal homeowners with significant net worth tied to properties at risk, there is very little action that can be taken to reverse the losses.

For some, the extreme flooding headlines haven’t hit home yet as, to date, the surge in tidal flooding has had a more pronounced impact on coastal geographies that aren’t as wealthy. Many rich coastal enclaves have spent the past ten years building extravagant protections for their properties, including steel stilts, elaborate sump systems, and erosion barriers dredged from sand on the bottom of the ocean. No matter how expensive these Band-Aids are, they only delay the inevitable. Tidal flooding and global weirding are indifferent to socioeconomic status. No matter how insulated a beachside mansion is from extreme weather, the property value evaporates if the surrounding area is abandoned or submerged. You can’t throw money at problems this complex. Unfortunately, it stands to reason that the headlines will become most dire when the playgrounds of the rich come under flooding threat. First Street Foundation and Columbia University conducted a follow-up study to examine the projected risk to coastal property value from 2019 onward. Over the next decade, the Hamptons, West Palm Beach, and Cape Cod stand to lose a combined $10.4 billion in property value.[iv] There’s bright red writing all over the walls at this point. Its straightforward to understand the massive, collective loss of wealth that would result in a full-scale write-off of coastal properties. More likely to be a sledgehammer to the cogs of the system than a bursting bubble, there’s a point of no return, literally, when mortgages start being denied across the board.

Population Density Endures Extreme Weather

The total population of the U.S. has doubled since the mid 20th century, thanks primarily to hyper population growth on the country’s coastlines and in the eastern floodplain.

United States Coastal and Eastern Floodplain Regions

In fact, since 1960, the three U.S. coasts and the eastern flood plain have combined to outpace global population growth by 2.5 times.[v] Layering the above map over the U.S. population distribution maps for 1960 and 2017 from the US census bureau highlights this concentration.

United States Population Distribution, 1960

United States Population Distribution, 2017

The problem is that these two regions are the most susceptible to direct impact from the two most destructive natural disasters: flooding, across the board, and wildfires, specific to the pacific coast. In recent years, two emerging trends of global weirding related to climate change are amplifying the risk of living in these areas: the increased severity and frequency of natural disasters. That we’ve entered new territory for natural disaster severity is evident in the FEMA historical archive, where a new record for total damages seems to be set with virtually every successive storm, flood, and fire. Over the past ten years, we’ve experienced the seven worst hurricanes, the three worst wildfires, and three of the four worst floods ever recorded in the U.S.[vi] The mounting losses from any one of these events, by measures financial and otherwise, are obviously enormous. In the shock reaction to each extreme weather event, the accelerated frequency with which they happen can become obscured. However, the country is now enduring successive natural disasters at an unprecedented clip. In a 27-day period in 2017, hurricanes Maria, Irma, and Harvey destroyed $300 Billion of property.[vii] Just two weeks ago, the National Weather Service announced a new record for the largest number of simultaneously active named storms:

source: National Weather Service via weather.com

Extreme weather that’s more costly and more common is a trend that’s been building steadily over the past three decades. FEMA is responsible for official weather declarations and includes earthquakes, floods, hailstorms, blizzards, hurricane storm surge, tornados, and wildfires in its categorization of natural disasters. Up until the late 1980s, the United States averaged fewer than 30 individual disaster declarations per year. Since 1990, the country has experienced an eye-popping 4x increase in annual natural disasters. When the same areas are hit, harder and harder, and much more often, there is a compounding effect on the costs to recover. The graph below charts the 30-year trend in natural disaster declarations along with the resultant annual damages in dollar terms, which have grown 10x.

While extreme weather is indifferent to wealth, the immediate term effects will differ depending on it. Rich people in these areas may see net worth shrink or may flee immediate danger zones, poor people will lose lifesavings or entire homes without financial protections that allow them to rebuild. Ultimately, though, we are all at extreme risk. If the natural disaster trend lines above continue unabated, everyone stands to lose everything.

Our Diets Are Forced To Change

Over the past few decades thanks to advances in large-scale machine-based harvests and yield management technology, we’ve become remarkably efficient at farming. Some analysts would argue we’re way too good at it. The prodigious production that’s filled groceries with fresh everything and given a few generations lots of options for what we eat still depends on arable land to graze livestock and plant crops and seasonal weather to sustain both and harvest appropriately. Without predictable rainfall, the system stops producing. Climate change and global weirding threaten to upset the delicate atmospheric balance that’s given us the opportunity to feed ourselves in such abundance.

There are two crippling agricultural consequences of temperature increases: high-intensity rainfall and extreme drought. This doesn’t sound like it makes sense as one could solve the other. However, it’s that type of uninformed logic that’s allowed far too many people an out to dismiss the entire crisis. These two events don’t happen in predictable sequence or in the same places. When air warms, it holds more moisture. More moisture in the air makes more intense rainfall when it happens. Unexpected heavy rainfall can ruin crops outright and any instance where flooding occurs can render entire fields useless forever. A temperature increase also accelerates groundwater evaporation. This in turn creates extended droughts and water shortage. Today, 80% of the world’s crops are rain-fed and another 10% are irrigated with groundwater.[viii] Keep in mind that crops don’t just mean the vegetables we eat, corn is the primary resource used to feed livestock globally.

So, as you can see, the strain on our food supply as a result of small climate increases is being felt and can continue to get worse without urbanites feeling any meaningful difference in their own temperatures or extreme weather. At the moment, crop yield for the top 10 most commonly produced, imported, and consumed foodstuffs in the U.S. is decreasing by 1% every year.[ix] That’s in current circumstances and despite all of the farming advancements. Might not seem like much however it amounts to enough calories to feed 50 million human beings wiped out, every year. Those foodstuffs categories include or directly reduce: avocados, beer craft and otherwise, every cut of red meat, and, yes oh yes, coffee.

Like the coastal housing section, the immediate term consequence from our economic and food system will be rich people stockpiling through expensive imports and everyone else struggling. Also, in any complicated crisis, things tend to get uncomfortable first and unlivable later. Ideally, you start changing your eating habits now, but if you’re a stubborn beer swilling, steak and potatoes manly man, be prepared to pay craft brew and filet mignon prices for Natty Ice and Salisbury steak quality.

4 Seasons become 1 and 1/4

This impact may seem more superficial than the previously three, its not and its onset sucks either way. Anyone living in the Northeast United States for the past decade has already started to experience this reality: our transitional seasons, Fall and Spring, are rapidly disappearing and a winter is becoming a short, frozen blast. The definitive and only culprit is global temperature increase. Since 2010 in Central Park, the average temperatures for March and April as well as September and October are 3 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the average historical temperatures for those four months since we started recording them.[x]

A three-degree bump may be pretty easy to ignore, especially in modernized big cities. We may even welcome it. There may be no more significant factor contributing to societal apathy towards the climate crisis than the broad human preference for warmth over cold. Everyone loves sun shiny days. We don’t balk at an earlier spring thaw or do anything beyond celebrate extra summery days into October. Maybe there’s passing regret for fewer days to see the foliage change or a shorter PSL season. Like many slow-build calamities in history, rising temperatures may well be hailed as a pleasant change, right up until the moment that it’s too hot and, unfortunately, too late to do anything about it.

The direct implications of fundamentally changing our planet’s natural seasonal progressions are dire. A shift from air conditioning as a comfort to relying on it in order to function will put unsustainable pressure on the country’s energy utilities, many of which are already giving out under current, skyrocketing resident demand (see: PG&E, California’s largest utility, bankrupted by wildfire related insurance claims last year and instituting mandatory black outs today). With broad medical acknowledgement of seasonal depression, it’s not difficult to imagine the new physical and emotional health problems that will result from life lived indoors. Furthermore, the intermediate knock-on effects are extreme and destructive. Shorter winters means less annual snowpack in the country’s western ranges. So, for the wealthy, ski trips become memories from yesteryear. Far more importantly, snowpack that melts earlier in the season causes unexpected flooding throughout the Midwest and contributes to harsher, longer drought west of the U.S. mountain ranges into California.[xi]

As with many of the climate crisis effects today, the seasonal disruption is less a doomsday prediction and more an increasingly present reality. 2018 was the fourth hottest year on record. The three years ahead of it? 2015, 2016, and 2017. There are solutions that can help solve this problem and they need dedicated, intelligent minds to see them through. If the three degrees Fahrenheit bump we’ve already experienced becomes six, then eight, then 12, the great outdoors will become largely off-limits for human beings.

Part II. Effective Innovations

Alternative Protein Delivers

There are few sectors where the supercharged startup hype machine has been more tangibly beneficial than plant-based proteins and alternative meats. With a better than expected IPO from Beyond Meat, fast food chains lining up to rapidly deliver distribution to mass consumer segments. Progress has been made when general consensus moves from sounds gross, tastes not as good to oh wait, its delicious? And its cool? American tourists are now visiting New York City not for pizza or steak but for a hamburger made from plants. Thank you David Chang.

The chasm we now must cross is in expanding and diversifying the menu, so that the current dietary evolution doesn’t stop at the impossible burger. Culturally, we must overcome the culinary subset of toxic masculinity that says manly men eat meat. A concept that’s deeply ingrained in American identity and extremely detrimental to the environment. The enduring demand for beef in the states drives subsistence farming tactics like slash-and-burn methods in other parts of the world and puts exponentially more carbon into the atmosphere – more than any other contributing factor. The most important thing to remember is that this dumb western edict isn’t true. However, you define ‘manliness’ it can be achieved without meat. You can get yoked in the gym off plant-based protein and it’s much better for your overall health.

If we can course correct our consumption culturally and continue to embrace entrepreneurial efforts to set out tables with delicious alternatives, then prices will become competitive and everyone will be able to benefit. Here are some delicious alternatives startups emerging today: Soylent, Hungryroot, Exo Protein Bars, Ripple Foods, Wild Type and Simple Mills.

Renewable Energy Achieves Pricing Parity

Historically, alternative energy options have been limited by non-competitive pricing. The mass market wouldn’t pay a premium for renewable energy, in their homes or their cars. This is because consumers don’t want to spend extra cash for an intangible or indirect benefit, or they simply couldn’t afford to do so. Thanks to the indomitable efforts of scientists and entrepreneurs, those prices are finally dropping to a point that they are competitive with traditional fossil fuels, without subsidies.

There are two particularly remarkable areas of innovation that helped make renewable energy an affordable option. One is on the energy sourcing side and the other is on the energy storage side. The first is rapid progress in solar photovoltaics, or solar panels. A unique attribute that’s allowed meaningful adoption of solar panels ahead of the pricing parity curve and other renewables is how easily panels can retrofit to existing infrastructure and plug into traditional energy grids. Citibike docks are powered by solar panels and new buildings regularly install solar panels on new roofs. That early adoption combined with persistent research and development to increase panel efficiency have brought the price of solar panels down 73% since 2010.[xii]

The cost to store alternative energy and still have it readily available to use has contributed to limited adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs) up to this point. The average MSRP for electric vehicles still hovers about $10k more than comparable gas-powered vehicle models. There’s been notable progress recently in the reducing the price per kilowatt hour of energy storage in the lithium-ion battery packs that run electric vehicles. Electric vehicles face a dual challenge in needing to lower costs that produce a battery pack with a significantly increased carrying capacity. In order to compete with gas-powered cars, EVs need to price competitively and be able to drive longer distances, faster, on a single charge. Fortunately, both these requirements are rapidly being met by the industry. As the chart below shows, the cost of lithium-ion packs for EVs has dropped 80% since 2010 is projected to continue to fall.

This breakthrough will allow EVs to price at parity with and eventually be significantly less expensive than filling up a tank of gas. The significance of continued development of lithium-ion battery efficiency and capacity can’t be understated. In fact, just last week, the scientists responsible for many of the innovations in this field won the Nobel prize.

Autonomous Fleets Reduce Carbon Emissions

Deforestation is the single largest contributor global warming, but combustion engine emission is a close second.[xiii] There about as many positive are there are negative opinions and headlines regarding autonomous driving right now. I believe that’s to be expected. Autonomous systems are incredibly complex to build, test, and prove out and the technology is only just emerging. Furthermore, when a new technology has the potential to dramatically change a massive incumbent industry like auto manufacturing as well as the predominant means of transportation over the past 100 years, dismissiveness and flack are inevitable. (FWIW, the automobile endured the same fearful headlines during the early 20th century).

As it pertains to the climate crisis, I’ll focus on the impact of autonomous vehicle adoption at scale. Though it’s cool to experience taking your hands off the wheel in a Tesla today, independently autonomous vehicles (AVs) are more demo than endgame for the industry right now. The profound shift will be AVs that operate as fleets or on an interconnected mesh that lets them adjust speed, acceleration, deceleration, and directional path in real-time coordination with one another. This would represent a step-function improvement over the status quo where each driver decides all of those variables on their own. Human beings aren’t good drivers. That’s not to say we aren’t intelligent enough to get licensed and drive. It’s just that we are constantly distractible. That danger combined with incongruous acceleration and breaking are what create traffic congestion and what kill 100 people every day in auto accidents in the U.S.

AVs on connected networks may take a variety of forms. Fully autonomous fleets may be deployed through ride-hailing services and taxi liveries. Privately-owned AVs may plug into a mesh network whenever turned on or when they come within a certain distance of other AVs. Whichever distribution method puts them on the road, AVs will gradually mean fewer total cars being driven thanks to ride-shares, carpooling, and the ability for the network to recognize shared destinations for passengers and so pickup along the most efficient paths. A recent Center for American Progress research report cites an MIT City Lab study on AVs in urban settings to conclude:[xvi]

“Fully autonomous vehicles incorporated into ride- and car-sharing programs—known as shared autonomous vehicles—could reduce the number of vehicles on the road 80 percent while still getting every passenger to where they need to be, when they need to be there.”

Fewer cars and less traffic means less carbon in the atmosphere. The additional environmental kicker, of course, is that the majority autonomous vehicles being developed and introduced today are 100% electric or hybrids. Since the Nissan Leaf, we’ve already experienced the redesigning of the vehicle to maximize energy efficiency throughout their systems. We’re still years away from this hyper efficient transportation, however, the foundational steps are being taken today by big tech companies and entrepreneurs alike. The next time you’re in the BK Navy Yard try out the Optimus Ride autonomous vehicles in operation there.

Farming Goes Vertical and Aquaponic

A particularly hopeful area of innovation today is in redesigning our agricultural structure and process. The traditional farming industry discussed earlier via which we all eat is as massive as it is efficient. It’s loaded with layers of lobbyists and subsidies that have aided in ensuring our continued dependence on it. Many of the emerging ag innovators, however, don’t enter the market as threats to either Big Ag or local farming. Much like the potential integration of autonomous vehicles into Big Auto, these new methods can be the next evolutions of the existing industry especially if they find processing and distribution partners in the existing agriculture establishment.

Vertical, indoor farming provides growers direct controls over many of the natural variables – sunlight, rainfall, temperature – that are becoming unpredictable due to global weirding. As the name indicates, vertical farming is uses significantly less square footage and does not put repeat stress on soil the way that field farming tends to do. This dynamic also makes vertical farming viable in urban areas, reducing the cost and carbon-emissions of harvest delivery to cities. Bowery Farming and Freight Farms are two leading startup examples. Another even newer indoor farming system is the aquaponic farm system. These maximize yield and sustainability at each farming cycle stage. The most complex examples are integrated symbiotic systems: the nutrient-rich water from raising fish provides a natural fertilizer for plants grown, the plants in turn help purify the same water that circulates back to raising the fish. It’s fascinating to see and there are many local examples.

I believe it’s crucial that these potentially transformational new farming techniques not be seen or positioned as ways to sustain agricultural supply to overwhelming demand in a world that’s losing its naturally arable land or predictable rainfall. These methods should be viewed as evolutions of the industry that, with the proper marketing and distribution, can help make farming as sustainable as it is productive.

Part III. When Our Powers Combine

Four Changes Everyone Can Make

I’m going to conclude with four dead simple, everyday changes that everyone can decide to make and commit to continuing today that absolutely will help end this crisis.

1. Skip meat twice a week: if everyone in the U.S. did this, it would achieve the carbon emissions equivalent of taking all the cars, trains, and planes out of operation for a year. Just think about that for a second. Its remarkably easy to not eat meat two out of seven days. Its also way healthier for you to eat more plants, more often.

2. Recycle correctly: Everyone knows how. Separate your plastics and metals, your compostable trash, and your papers. Pro tip 1: done correctly, your recycling bin will likely be much faster to fill up, so have a larger bin for recycling and a smaller one for compost. Pro tip 2: recyclable papers include all types of cardboard, especially pizza boxes. Just do this. I know, laziness and selfishness is a thing and it’s much more tempting when your home alone and no one is looking. Hold yourself accountable for the few extra seconds it takes to recycle.

3. Carbon credit your air travel: If you fly often for work or pleasure, this action is as easy as clicking yes on the insurance option while booking a flight. The additional cost is minimal and, if its work air travel, you aren’t paying for it.

4. Stay Informed: Climate change maybe the only issue that entered the Fake News era already saddled with myriad claims that it’s not real. Poorly informed participants will cut the legs out from under any of the above efforts. Read, listen, and stay up on these issues.

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end notes:

[i] https://public.tableau.com/profile/zillow.real.estate.research#!/vizhome/TotalMarketValue/States

[ii] https://www.huduser.gov/portal/ushmc/hmi-update.html

[iii] https://assets.floodiq.com/2019/01/a22bd29b007a783c7d3fa7f5c4531c9a-ne-homevalue-loss-slr.pdf

[iv] https://assets.floodiq.com/2019/01/a22bd29b007a783c7d3fa7f5c4531c9a-ne-homevalue-loss-slr.pdf

[v] https://census.gov/history/www/reference/maps/population_distribution_over_time.html

[vi] https://www.fema.gov/media-library/collections/339

[vii] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_in_the_United_States

[viii] https://www.globalagriculture.org/report-topics/industrial-agriculture-and-small-scale-farming.html

[ix] https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/overview#1

[x] https://www.weather.gov/okx/CentralParkHistorical